LIVE · connecting to desk…
April 2026

The world has a price. We're reading the board.

A daily live geopolitical risk desk, wired to prediction markets, OSINT feeds, and a proprietary conviction engine — already running, already posting, already right.

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markets tracked
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price snapshots
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LLM opinions
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whales tracked
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01

The market moves before the missiles.

In 2025, prediction markets did $44B in volume — up from $300M the year before. CNN, CNBC, Dow Jones, the WSJ, and Yahoo Finance all signed exclusive data deals with Kalshi and Polymarket. Prediction markets are no longer fringe. They're becoming the next stock ticker for geopolitics.

$44B
prediction‑market volume, 2025
+14,566% YoY
600K
Polymarket users, up from 4K
+15,000%
1B+
monthly podcast viewers on YouTube
700M hours on TV in Oct '25 alone
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daily geopolitical prediction‑market shows
white space
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The market is the scoreboard. The hosts are the interpreters. OSINT is the evidence layer. The house probability desk is the differentiator.
— Odds of War pitch thesis
02

The demo — built, wired, running right now.

What you're about to see is not a mockup. Every number below is a live query against the production database. The charts update every 8 seconds via WebSocket, the same way Grafana does. This is already the infrastructure behind the show.

I.
Twitter Intelligence
2,400+ curated accounts. 227K tweets. Real‑time conviction scoring.
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II.
Whale Tracking
100K+ trader snapshots. Every $500+ trade on Polymarket, tagged and timed.
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III.
Correlation Engine
16M price snapshots cross‑indexed against every tweet. Market‑vs‑model.
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IV.
Success Rate
Measured edge. Posts vs. subsequent price moves. No cherry‑picking.
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03 / Component I

Twitter intel, parsed by a machine.

We watch 2,400+ curated handles — journalists, OSINT accounts, analysts, officials. Every tweet gets embedded, matched to Polymarket contracts via bi‑encoder + cross‑encoder, then scored by a Claude‑Sonnet analyst for direction and conviction.

Live Twitter stream LIVE · every 20s
Pipeline throughput · last 24htweets → opinions → postsLIVE
tweets/day
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opinions/day
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posts/day
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last post
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@polyintelligent — our live posting accountlive X feed (embed)LIVE
Poly Intelligent ✓
@polyintelligent · live feed
Open on X ↗
Loading live feed…
Top authors — by follower count and reliabilityscored on our internal rel indexLIVE
04 / Component II

Whale Watch. Every big bet, on the record.

Our whale bot reads the Polymarket on‑chain feed in real time. Every trader > $10K volume is profiled, ranked by P&L and volume. When a whale loads a conviction position, we know within seconds.

Leaderboard — by P&L—LIVE
Flow — big trades, last 6 hoursonly trades > $500LIVE
USDC flow into Polymarket · last 12 hoursbuy vs sell pressure, 15‑min bucketsLIVE
05 / Component III

Breaking event correlation.

When Iran odds move 11 points overnight — someone knows why. We cross‑index every breaking tweet against every market move, showing which news caused the repricing, and which markets drifted on their own.

Layer 1 · ingest
Polymarket Gamma API Kalshi 2,400 Twitter accounts OSINT feeds
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Layer 2 · match + score
MiniLM‑L6 embeddings BM25 + cross‑encoder Claude Sonnet 4 analyst Conviction ≥ 0.7
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Layer 3 · post + signal
Composer LLM Reviewer gate X / Twitter post Live dashboard
Top movers — last 24 hoursbiggest swings on YES priceLIVE
Inside one move — price × eventsclick any mover above to replay it hereLIVE
06 / Component IV

Has it worked?

For every post we've made on X in the last 30 days, we measured the Polymarket price right before we posted, and one hour after. That delta is edge. A single post on a deliberately empty X account we seeded as a controlled experiment (@tehbag_io, zero followers at launch) pulled 10,000+ organic impressions — proving the signal, not the audience, is what travels.

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success rate
conviction ≥ 0.7, adverse‑move test
posts scored
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correct calls
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avg edge / call
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conviction threshold
0.70
Signal Accuracy — did our calls work?each bullish/bearish post, with price before & afterLIVE · 60s
Posted Market Call Mood Conv. Price @ post Price now Δ Verdict
loading signal log…
Organic traction — sample viral postone of our opinions that ranLIVE
Our @tehbag_io post at the top of the For You feed
In the wild · For You feed
Post analytics: 2.4K impressions, 5.9% engagement rate
2,400+ impressions · 5.9% engagement rate · 0 followers at post time
Account overview: daily impressions climbing to 10K
Account overview · cold start to 10K impressions in 3 days
Reposted by @Natsecjeff and others
Reposted by @Natsecjeff and others — organic amplification
Coverage by categoryopinions generated, last 7 daysLIVE
07

So: build it.

The infrastructure exists. The data is live. The edge is measurable. The white space is open. Every hour we spend not building the flagship show is an hour a competitor gets to occupy the lane first.

105
minutes daily, M–F, live on YouTube + X
2
hosts · The Anchor · The Edge
8–12
markets per episode
20–30
clips produced per day, automatically
90
day pilot window
$0
competitors doing this format
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The market is open. The board is hot.
Someone needs to read it on camera, every day,
with evidence, edge, and energy.
— Odds of War
Odds of War